Dynamic Species Distribution Models in the Marine Realm: Predicting Year-Round Habitat Suitability of Baleen Whales in the Southern Ocean

Species distribution models (SDMs) relate species information to environmental conditions predict potential distributions. The majority of SDMs are static, relating presence long-term average conditions. resulting temporal mismatch between and can increase model inference’s uncertainty. For capture the dynamic species-environment relationships near-real-time habitat suitability, needs be spatiotemporally matched with contemporaneous species’ (dynamic SDMs). Implementing in marine realm is highly challenging, particularly due data paucity biases. Here, we implemented presence-only for four migratory baleen whale Southern Ocean (SO): Antarctic minke, blue, fin, humpback whales. Sightings were their respective daily predictors. Background was sampled describe SO. We corrected spatial sampling bias by background seasonal research efforts. Independent evaluation performed on cross-validation. predicted circumantarctic year-round suitability each species. Daily predictions also summarized into bi-weekly monthly suitability. identified important predictors responses changes. Our results support propitious use fill gaps improve conservation planning strategies. Near-real-time used ocean management, e.g., examine overlap human activities. Nevertheless, inevitable spatiotemporal biases sighting from SO call need improving effort using alternative sources (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring) future SDMs. further discuss challenges calibrating SO, a particular focus issues how should highlight integrate visual whales better coverage suitable avoid constraints either type alone.